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Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."