🔗 Share this article A Forecasting Platform Trader Profited $Nearly Half a Million from Bets Predicting Venezuela's Political Shift. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. An individual profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was publicly declared, leading to inquiries about potential gains made from inside knowledge of American actions. Sudden Shift in Forecasts Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be no longer in control by the close of the month increased in the period preceding Donald Trump announced on the weekend that the president had been seized. A single trader, which registered on the site recently and took four positions, all on the Venezuelan situation, profited a total of $436,000 from a modest bet of $32.5K. The identity is unknown. The anonymous account had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Platform data shows that users estimated the likelihood of a political change at just a low 6.5 percent in the late afternoon of the prior Friday. But the odds had jumped to eleven percent by shortly before midnight and spiked dramatically in the morning of January 3rd, pointing to a rapid movement in betting activity immediately prior to the public announcement was made. "This particular bet has all the signs of a bet based on inside information," said an industry expert. A handful of other individuals also profited tens of thousands of dollars from predicting the capture. Regulatory Scrutiny Grows Some lawmakers are starting to take note. A bill put forward on the start of the week would prevent federal workers from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a wager. The Prediction Market Landscape Prediction markets have surged in popularity in the past few years, with users able to predict everything from sports outcomes to political events. The industry encountered regulatory challenges under the previous administration. However it has experienced less resistance during the present political climate. Insider trading is a crime in the securities markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the prediction market arena. A company executive for a competing service said their site "explicitly prohibits insider trading of any form."